We are living in challenging times. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to be felt around the world. Pandemics have historically been great disrupters. While the impacts on the health of the people and the death toll are more straightforward to quantify, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on society are significant but deceptive.
When disease transmission has long stopped, the effects of the pandemic live on for years. The long tail of COVID-19 will impact individuals, families, communities, organizations and nations long after the illness is endemic and part of our “usual” disease profile.
Historically Observed Societal Pandemic Disruptions
It turns out that all pandemics create societal disruptions, and there are five consistent, recurring themes. Many of these disruptions will sound very familiar to the reader.
Distrust of Government and Public Health Measures
The lack of trust in our institutions and government runs deep and may have origins in previous epidemics. This profound distrust sounds very similar to our current experience.
- Suspicion of government.
- Resistance to mandates and defying measures to slow the spread.
- Resistance to mask-wearing dates to the 16th
- Vaccine resistance – goes back over 200 years to the 1770s.
Blaming Others
Old prejudices bubble up to the surface, and politicians looking to deflect blame may suggest or encourage the disease outbreak is someone’s fault – either a country, nationality or religion.
Fraying of Society and Social Cohesion
Psychologists note increased antisocial behavior, leading to anxiety, irritability, aggression and diminished impulse control.
- Widespread crime – Increases in property crime and violent crimes.
- Political losses – Election losses are attributed to the handling of the outbreak.
- Movement toward populism and autocratic states and leaders – Democracies struggle in a pandemic compared to authoritarian states. It is not that the autocrats do a better job managing the outbreak; they are just better able to control the message. The rise of Hitler has been partly attributed to the 1918 flu pandemic.
Conspiracy Theories and Apocalyptic Thinking
Conspiracy theories are closely tied to pandemics and tend to blossom during the outbreak and beyond. People get caught up in conspiracy theories for many reasons. It may be that the theory aligns with their pre-existing beliefs, giving their feelings of anxiety an outlet on which to focus.
Rise of the Worker and Organizing
Going back to the Black Death in Europe in the 14th century, workers have taken advantage of a worker shortage to demand improved pay, benefits and working conditions, which continues to this day. We see that today with widespread support for unions and increased strike activity.
The Current State of Our World
All this global uncertainty has also birthed several new or recently rediscovered words. “Permacrisis” was the Collins Dictionary’s word of the year for 2022. It embodies the sense of lurching from one unprecedented event to another as we wonder bleakly what new horrors might be around the corner.
At the World Economic Forum (WEF) 2023, the world was abuzz with the latest new word – Polycrisis. This term was first coined in the 1990’s by the French philosopher Edgar Morin. And was revived by the economic historian Adam Tooze in 2023. A polycrisis is when present and future risks interact with each other to form a ‘polycrisis.’ It is a cluster of related global risks with compounding effects such that the overall impact exceeds the sum of each part.
The Global Risk Network was established in 2004 and tracks the evolution of a set of risks in five areas over a ten-year time frame. This includes Economics, Geopolitics, Environment, Society and Technology. The Global Risks Report (GRP) 2023 sheds light on the concerns and thoughts of many global leaders. There was a marked pessimism among the respondents looking ten years out:
- 20% believed the world was at progressive tipping points and persistent crises leading to catastrophic outcomes
- 34% expect consistent volatility across economies and industries with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories.
The GRP describes four potential futures centered around food, water, metals and mineral shortages, all of which could spark a humanitarian and ecological crisis – from water wars and famines to continued overexploitation of environmental resources and a slowdown in climate mitigation and adaption. More than four in five GRP respondents anticipate volatility over the next two years at a minimum, with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories.
Global risks reflect a focus on three issues: Economic, Geopolitical and Societal. All three create more destabilization and unpredictable risks. For example, inflation in many countries remains stubbornly high, and some countries have experienced a recession. The global banking community shuddered at the collapse of Silicon Valley, Signature and First Republic banks in the United States, which led to the sudden demise of Credit Suisse in Europe.
The geopolitical situation is tenuous at best. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has wide-ranging impacts far beyond either of those borders, including the destabilization of the region, famine in Africa, fear of greater war in Europe, nuclear threats and the migration of millions of refugees. China has become more aggressive toward Taiwan. India has embraced a virulent nationalism. Numerous countries in Africa and South America are experiencing major uprisings and, in some countries, coups. Israel has formed the most extreme government in its history. And then, on October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel, launching thousands of missiles and publicly kidnapping and killing civilians, starting a Middle East war. Countries and political groups like Hamas are willing to take big risks rather than fearing that the consequences would be too dire.
The third big wild card is the societal fissures that run deep and wide and remain to this day. The erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization are felt globally. There is a widening gap in values and equality on issues such as immigration, gender, reproductive rights, ethnicity, religion and climate. The economic and geopolitical issues have created a cost-of-living and healthcare crisis and severe mental health deterioration in all ages.
Going Forward
Leaders must continually be aware of these global risks to make the best decisions for their organizations. This requires that they possess timely, accurate and specific situational awareness. How is this collected in your organization? How is it validated? How is it presented in a way that provides useful information that can result in actionable decisions? Ensure that you have accurate, timely and useful intelligence that can provide you the information you need to make the right decisions.
Regina Phelps Bio
Regina Phelps is an internationally recognized thought leader and expert in the field of crisis management, pandemic and continuity planning and exercise design. She is the founder of EMS Solutions Inc, (EMSS) and since 1982, EMSS has provided consultation and speaking services to clients on five continents.
Ms. Phelps is a frequent speaker at international continuity conferences and is consistently rated one of the top-rated speakers in her field. She is known for her approachable and entertaining speaking style and her ability to take complex topics and break them into easily digestible and understandable nuggets. She is the author of four books, all available on Amazon:
- Crisis Management: How to Develop a Powerful Program
- Cyberbreach: What if your defenses fail? Designing an exercise to map a ready strategy
- Emergency Management Exercises: From Response to Recovery
- Emergency Management Exercises: From Response to Recovery Instructors Guide.